Now that companies can apply for IEEPA refunds, I’ll be actively monitoring how major retailers handle the new IEEPA duty refunds. These companies blamed Trump‑era tariffs for price hikes; now that the tariffs have been struck down and refunds are starting to flow, they are quietly switching the script to “gas prices,” shipping, and wages. In particular, Costco has publicly promised that any recovered tariffs will be returned to members through lower prices and “better value,” even as it faces a class action accusing it of seeking refunds on tariffs that customers, not Costco, ultimately paid.

Going forward, I’ll be tracking three things each quarter for firms such as Costco, Walmart, Starbucks, and McDonald’s:

1. What they say are the main cost pressures (tariffs, fuel, labor, commodities).
2. What actually happens to their gross and operating margins, same‑store sales, and profits.
3. What I see in real‑world prices for a simple basket of import‑heavy goods such as coffee, alcohol, packaged foods, and small appliances.

If margins and profits keep rising while retail prices never meaningfully fall, and “gas prices” become the new go‑to excuse, I’ll be documenting that gap. The question is not whether costs exist, but whether companies that raised prices in the name of tariffs are willing to lower them now that those tariffs, and the duties that came with them, are being unwound.