The headlines sound great: the government is getting ready to refund about $166 billion in Trump‑era tariffs that the Supreme Court said were unconstitutional. Importers are lining up at a shiny new portal to get their money back, with interest. If you skim it, you’d think, “Finally, something for us.”

Except the “us” is doing a lot of work there. Only the entities that paid the tariffs can get the refunds, which means the businesses that passed those costs straight through to you at the cash register are now being made whole, while the people who actually ate the higher prices aren’t even in the line. CNBC’s CFO survey found zero executives planning to share refunds with customers; out of 25, not a single one said they’d pass anything on. Everyone else either said “not applicable,” “uncertain,” or flat‑out “no.”

So here’s how it works if you’re a Middle‑Class Person. When tariffs go on, you pay more for shoes, appliances, and groceries because “that’s just how the market works.” When those tariffs are struck down and the money comes back, it goes to firms that are already lobbying for the next round of protections, and you’re told to be grateful that “business confidence” has been restored. You get the fuzzy end of the lollipop once again, and if you’re still complacent about it, they’ll gladly hand you the stick the next time, too.