This column in Semafor is hilarious.

Journalism is supposed to be able to see the signs long before it becomes a crisis. If we had those kind of reporters, then they would have sensed a long time ago that, particularly in the US, that Big Tech was in a secret slump. Big Tech lives and dies by the Next Big Thing. Novelty implies dominance, and the Tech Bros didn’t have anything new to offer since search engines and social media, and they have not changed the way these sites function.

The Tech Bros knew this very well and they tried to build hype with VR, self-driving cars, spaceships, and the “Metaverse”, but these either flopped or became niche. You can’t rest on your laurels. Big Tech is deeply entrenched in the American Exceptionalism narrative, and with China making serious strides with no new dazzler, Big Tech was in a serious mid-life crisis, and even as far back as 2018, their trajectory was the same as legacy media who also coasted on old models and doubled down on it.

Big Tech was desperate for the Next Big Thing: the game-changer, the Earth-shattering device that would forever transform the world.

Then came AI.

AI isn’t actually new. I was an undergraduate at McMaster University when I took a course in it and had PhD students in the same class because an AI course was hard to come by at all.

It was a long, slow process, but it was mostly used behind the scenes, from video games to DNA testing. It was not something middle-class people were aware of on any meaningful level.

So to keep the narrative going, AI was unleashed earlier on the public than it should have been, and it shows.

In one way, it was great: with billions of people using it, it got more feedback and glitches could be ironed out much faster than in a lab.

That was the non-organic version of rolling out COVID-19 vaccines years before the trials could possibly be completed. The majority of people accepted it without question (though there was a vocal faction whose alarm came precisely because those safeguards were removed), and thus, made early release an acceptable business model.

So, AI was released early, but something interesting happened: the old move fast and break things system was the wrong one for this technology. Social media and gig apps (Uber, Skip the Dishes, Instacart) were appealing as it gave people more ways to earn money, and gave them a platform that bypassed traditional gatekeepers.

These fed into narcissism and fantasy of individual exceptionalism, even though the ones who succeeded the most weren’t exceptional: they were average. They could edit, airbrush, and censor their feeds and present an edited version of their persona. Apps automated this process and you could muddle your way into creating a polished feed without having any technical background. It was like a frozen TV dinner, just for your videos and pictures.

However, AI is not the kind of tech you can muddle your way to success: you have to educate yourself first. Unlike social media and search engines, this doesn’t run on a vending machine model.

Then came the sales pitch that was beyond stupid: make AI sound like a monster that will eat way jobs: this was the pitch to CEOs to sign them on board.

To middle class people who have been indoctrinated on narcissism by social media, they were having meltdowns.

First, they weren’t actually talented or special. They needed 50+ apps on their phones to look exceptional, not to mention a GoPro, microphone, and lighting to pull it off, and now AI automated the scripts they parroted and swiped from other people. They were following the script to the point that software could automat their schtick, and then have the nerve to whine about copyright.

Uh-huh, yeah, sure.

And then there were the false threats that their jobs would be replaced by AI. This was a sales pitch to C-Suite customers.

But Big Tech were resting on their laurels and dusted off old playbooks without thinking about their target audiences or whether the world has evolved since the early 2000s.

The AI Doomers weren’t any smarter, and arguably, they were even stupider than the Tech Bros. AI is a liberator: you can start your own business and have it as your guide and elite assistant.

And the people whose voices usually get drowned out, avoided AI, meaning AI has less of their wants, needs, and perspectives to train from, and hardens the bias. This cannot be blamed on AI: this is the natural consequence of getting a place at the table and you turning it down and walking away. Someone else will occupy your seat, and you won’t have a say when it counts the most.

The vocal minority’s rejection didn’t stop the progression of AI: it merely shifted its focus from consumer to corporate.

The Doomers are holding on to their horse and buggy, while the rest are testing out their new spaceships for the newest race.

However, Big Tech messed up the narrative, showing panic and weakness, and more predatory lawyers and wonks — who are tethered to the folksy illogic of middle-class thinking — saw an opportunity and struck.

And Big Tech is folding because they don’t actually have a new Next Big Thing to fall back on as Plan B.

They are in the same place as legacy media: holding on to the past as they try to convince the world they have the only keys to the future.

AI is a game-changer, but it requires literacy and trial and error as well as humility.

C-Suite do educate themselves on using AI. Enterprise accounts get access to it. Middle-class people are still asking AI to generate images of themselves winning an Oscar in outer space, and then ranting against AI on Reddit.

Almost no one is coming out on top here: not clueless journalists, Tech Bros, or AI Doomers. They are stuck on their horse and buggy trying to chase the people on spaceships who have better things to do than listen to someone else’s loaded and vested opinion.